St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the total factor productivity (TFP) of enterprises. Based on the work of Abel, Bernanke, Baker, Bloom, and Davis, we confirm that uncertainty reduces investment activity, delays decision-making, and negatively affects company productivity. The BBD index is used as a key indicator of uncertainty, combining media content, changes in tax legislation and the variance of macroeconomic forecasts. Empirical analysis shows that uncertainty shocks reduce TFP by reducing investment, reallocation of resources, and delays in hiring. At the same time, companies with a high level of cash reserves show less sensitivity to uncertainty, since internal financial reserves mitigate its negative effect. However, even in this case, the residual negative impact remains significant. Alternative uncertainty measures (JLN, HHVLT, BEX) are used to verify the sustainability of the results, which eliminates the bias associated with the business cycle. The main contribution of the study is to prove the statistically and economically significant impact of uncertainty on TFP, as well as to identify cash reserves as a factor partially offsetting this effect. The results are important for corporate strategies and economic policies aimed at reducing the impact of uncertainty on the activities of organizations.
uncertainty, organizational productivity, financial reserves, non-refundable investments, economic uncertainty index, financial flexibility
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