VAK Russia 5.2.5 JEL F13 CSCSTI 06.51 VAK Russia 5.2.1 JEL O24 JEL O25 JEL F52 JEL P33

THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION POLICY: APPROACHES TO DEFINITION AND THE EVOLUTION OF SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT Theoretical and Methodological Foundations of Import Substitution Policy: Approaches to Definition and the Evolution of Scientific Thought

Published in Theoretical economics · Issue 7, 2026 · Pages 151–161 · Rubric: MODERN PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-7-151-161
Received: 10.03.2026 Accepted: 27.07.2026 Published: 30.07.2026
Authors
In the context of sanctions pressure and the imperative to achieve technological sovereignty, import substitution in Russia is regarded not merely as an anti-crisis tool, but as a long-term strategic priority. This underscores the need to examine the accumulated historical experience of implementing this policy in order to identify the most effective approaches applicable to current realities. Despite a substantial body of literature on import substitution, existing studies lack a systematic comparison between the contemporary model and historical precedents. Addressing this gap is essential to determine which elements of past experience remain relevant for modern economies operating under sanctions. The aim of this study is to systematize theoretical perspectives on import substitution and to identify the key parameters of the current import substitution policy in a sanctions-constrained environment. The research employs retrospective and comparative analysis. The findings lead to the following conclusions. Two principal paradigms of import substitution have emerged in economic thought: one framing it as an instrument of national security, and the other as a natural phase of integration into the global economy. Theoretical interpretations have evolved from mercantilist protectionism toward an export-oriented model of import substitution. The study reveals the hybrid character of the contemporary Russian model, which combines protectionist measures reminiscent of Latin American practice with a declared commitment to export orientation inspired by the Asian experience. A major risk inherent in the current approach lies in the prevalence of reactive, situation-specific government support measures, which may lead to a "Latin American trap"—the perpetuation of inefficient industries while maintaining dependence on raw material exports.
import substitution, protectionism, technological sovereignty, Latin American model, export-oriented industrialization, sanctions pressure
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