Yaroslavl', Russian Federation
The article continues to develop the topic of topical problems of the development of the national economy, which was the subject of two previous publications in Theoretical Economy: the October issue considered the economic changes taking place in Russia that require reflection and comprehensive research, which either manifested themselves during 2022 or acquired a qualitatively new degree of aggravation, at the national level; in November issue - at the international. This article is devoted to the analysis of the preliminary results of Russia's economic development in 2022 and forecast estimates for 2023. The purpose of the article is to find an answer to the dilemma: how can the results of the Russian economy of the past year be assessed - either as serious successes against the background of temporary difficulties, or as serious difficulties against the background of temporary successes. The author, on the one hand, singled out those consequences that can be regarded as successes of the national economy, referring to them the output of GDP, the establishment of imports of goods, the dynamics of the construction sector, which, however, can only be partially recognized as successes. On the other hand, the difficulties of the Russian economy in 2022 were considered, which set dangerous trends for the current year 2023: an increase in the share of unprofitable organizations, a decrease in retail trade turnover, a decrease in real incomes of the population, an acceleration in the decline in the birth rate, a decrease in exports and prices for Russian export goods. The author studied the process of reducing the population's expenses and the transition to a savings model. A hypothesis was put forward about triggering the thrift paradox, during the analysis of which the discovery was formulated about the change in the shape of the consumption schedule from convex to concave, which made it possible to predict the persistence of the deflationary gap in 2023. The study made it possible to identify the primary directions of economic transformations in 2023 based on the priority of budget policy while maintaining the leading role of the state, especially in the investment sphere.
GDP, inflationary expectations, imports, exports, unprofitable organizations, household incomes, household spending, savings model, thrift paradox, Engel's law.
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