Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast

Irina Churilova; Bahadyr Matrizaev

doi:10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121

JEL

F39 F37 G15

RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND CHANGES IN THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION IN THE POST-INDUSTRIAL WORLD: TRENDS AND FORECAST Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast

АА Аа

Published in Theoretical economics · Pages 108–121 · Rubric: MODERN PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121

Received: 10.12.2025 Accepted: 26.01.2026 Published: 31.01.2026

Authors

Irina Churilova

ORCID

Bahadyr Matrizaev

ORCID

Irina Churilova

Academic degree: candidate of pedagogical sciences

Science rang: docent

Russian State University of Tourism and Service

ORCID

Bahadyr Matrizaev

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

Russian State University of Tourism and Service

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The article examines the results of a theoretical, methodological and empirical study of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of certain demographic syndromes of the post-industrial world and their impact on labor potential management in individual countries through the prism of human capital. In particular, the article examines the state and prospects of population aging and the resulting decline in the share of the workforce and their impact on macroeconomic dynamics and financial stability in the post-industrial world, characterized by the highest rates of population aging in the world. This article also contributes to understanding how population aging can affect aggregate factor productivity through individual elements of human capital. While other individual studies have focused on the general downward trend in the share of labor in GDP, the assessment of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of such a trend remains poorly understood. To this end, based on a quantitative model of the general equilibrium of the life cycle, the article provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of a decrease in the share of labor on macroeconomic variables and reforms of the social security system. In particular, the study is based on the model of intersecting generations, the parameters of which are adapted to individual countries of the post-industrial world, while modeling the impact of various institutions of human capital, such as health insurance and pension provision, etc. Empirical evidence shows that the decline in the labor share can be offset by a combination of appropriate macroeconomic management and institutional reforms, which can ultimately contribute to restoring macro-financial stability in countries characterized by an aging population and high levels of public debt.

KEYWORDS

cumulative factor productivity, demographic syndrome, labor potential, human capital, macroeconomic management, institutional reforms, economic dynamics

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GOST

Churilova I. G., Matrizaev B. D. Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast // . 2026. pp. 108-121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121. (Date of access 20.08.2026).

MLA

Irina Churilova, Matrizaev B. D.. "Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast." (2026): 108-121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121.

APA

Churilova I. G., Matrizaev B. D. (2026). Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast. , 108-121. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121

Chicago

Irina Churilova, Matrizaev B. D.. "Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast." , no. (2026): 108-121. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Churilova I. G., Matrizaev B. D. | title = Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast | journal = | year = 2026 | pages = 108-121 | doi = 10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121 }}

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