Theoretical economics Theoretical economics Теоретическая экономика 2221-3260 116674 10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-122-139 СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ MODERN PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ Macroeconomic factors of industrial growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan: analysis of interrelations and tendencies Макроэкономические факторы промышленного роста в Республике Казахстан: анализ взаимосвязей и тенденций Ашимова Жанна Рахимовна Ashimova Zhanna Rahimvna zhanna_5@bk.ru

кандидат экономических наук;

candidate of economic sciences;

 Абитов Жанай Зулкарнаинович Abitov Zhanay Zulkarnainovich abitovpro@gmail.com Абитова Диана Зулкарнаиновна Abitova Diana Zulkarnainovna abitova97@mail.ru Уристембек Амина Мухтаровна Uristembek Amina Mukhtarovna abitova97@mail.ru Алматинский технологический университет Алматы Казахстан Almaty Technological University Almaty Kazakhstan Kcell Алматы Казахстан Kcell Almaty Kazakhstan Amazon Берлин Германия Amazon Berlin Germany Dolce Алматы Казахстан Dolce Almaty Kazakhstan 31 01 2026 31 01 2026 1 122 139 17 12 2025 26 01 2026 https://chemintech.ru/en/nauka/article/116674/view

В условиях нестабильной внешнеэкономической конъюнктуры, геополитических вызовов и продолжающихся структурных преобразований в экономике Казахстана всесторонний анализ факторов, определяющих промышленный рост и устойчивость производственного сектора, имеет особое значение. Целью исследования является выявление характера, направленности и силы взаимосвязей между промышленным производством и ключевыми макроэкономическими детерминантами, что позволяет нам определить приоритетные направления промышленной политики. Эмпирическая база исследования основана на официальных статистических данных за 2000-2024 годы, что обеспечивает репрезентативность и достоверность выводов. Методологический подход основан на корреляционном и трендовом анализе, а также SWOT- и PEST-диагностике, что позволило охватить как количественные, так и качественные аспекты влияния инвестиционной, экспортной, трудовой и институциональной составляющих на динамику промышленности. Результаты исследования показали, что наибольшее положительное влияние на промышленное производство оказывают государственные субсидии (коэффициент корреляции 0,7592), уровень заработной платы (0,7126), валовой выпуск товаров и услуг (0,6587) и валовое накопление (0,6552). Чистый экспорт имеет умеренную положительную корреляцию (0,6463), в то время как инвестиции в основной капитал демонстрируют слабую текущую корреляцию (0,092), что указывает на вероятный отложенный эффект. SWOT-анализ выявил сильные стороны отрасли, включая богатую ресурсную базу и значительную государственную поддержку, а также слабые стороны, связанные с зависимостью от ресурсов и технологическим отставанием. PEST-анализ подтвердил высокую чувствительность промышленного сектора к нестабильности цен и валютных курсов. Сделан вывод о необходимости комплексного применения инвестиционных, фискальных и институциональных инструментов, направленных на стимулирование устойчивой индустриализации, ускорение технологического обновления и укрепление международной конкурентоспособности казахстанской промышленности.

In the context of unstable foreign economic conditions, geopolitical challenges and ongoing structural transformations in the economy of Kazakhstan, a comprehensive analysis of the factors determining industrial growth and the sustainability of the manufacturing sector is of particular importance. The purpose of the study is to identify the nature, orientation and strength of the relationships between industrial production and key macroeconomic determinants, which allows us to identify priority areas of industrial policy. The empirical base of the study is based on official statistical data for 2000-2024, which ensures the representativeness and reliability of the conclusions. The methodological approach is based on correlation and trend analysis, as well as SWOT and PEST diagnostics, which made it possible to cover both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the impact of investment, export, labor and institutional components on industrial dynamics. The results of the study showed that government subsidies (correlation coefficient 0.7592), wage levels (0.7126), gross output of goods and services (0.6587) and gross accumulation (0.6552) have the greatest positive impact on industrial production. Net exports have a moderate positive correlation (0.6463), while investments in fixed assets show a weak current correlation (0.092), indicating a likely delayed effect. The SWOT analysis revealed the strengths of the industry, including a rich resource base and significant government support, as well as weaknesses related to resource dependence and technological lag. The PEST analysis confirmed the high sensitivity of the industrial sector to price and currency instability. The conclusion is made about the need for a comprehensive application of investment, fiscal and institutional instruments aimed at stimulating sustainable industrialization, accelerating technological renewal and strengthening the international competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s industry.

 индустриализация макроэкономика производительность инвестиции экспорт субсидии модернизация конкурентоспособность диверсификация устойчивость industrialization macroeconomics productivity investments exports subsidies modernization competitiveness diversification sustainability

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