JOURNAL OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS JOURNAL OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS Журнал региональной и международной конкурентоспособности 2782-1927 115886 10.52957/2782-1927-2025-6-4-17-30 NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS Macro-level dynamics of agricultural state support: time-series analysis of Russia’s post-soviet agricultural transformation (1991-2024) Макроэкономическая динамика государственной поддержки сельского хозяйства: анализ временных рядов трансформации сельского хозяйства России в постсоветский период (1991-2024) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7740-5458 Онвусирибе Чигоризим Ндубуиси Onvusiribe Chigorizim Ndubuisi onvusiribe@urfu.ru

доктор философских наук;

doctor of philosophical sciences;

 Уральский федеральный университет им. Первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина Ural Federal University named First President of Russia B. Yeltsin 15 12 2025 15 12 2025 6 4 17 30 01 11 2025 30 11 2025 https://chemintech.ru/en/nauka/article/115886/view

Проведен эконометрический анализ временных рядов (1991-2024) государственной поддержки сельского хозяйства России для оценки эффективности этой поддержки. Тестирование структурных разрывов в рамках этого анализа выявило три отдельных периода политики за рассматриваемый период. Результаты анализа показали, что исследования и разработки (R&D) и качество государственного управления имеют более высокую отдачу, чем непосредственно прямые меры поддержки в виде субсидий. Полученные результаты также указывают на то, что внешние шоки еще больше снижают эффективность этих типов субсидий. Полученные результаты ставят под сомнение консенсус, согласно которому количество мер поддержки важнее качества поддержки сельского хозяйства. Исследование показывает, что в долгосрочной перспективе качество поддержки более важно для долгосрочного роста сельского хозяйства. Проведенный анализ позволил сформулировать рекомендации: необходимо перераспределять ресурсы от общих субсидий к грантовой поддержке инноваций и институциональных реформ, что позволит повысить продуктивность и устойчивость сельскохозяйственного сектора в России.

A time-series econometric analysis (1991-2024) of Russia's agricultural state support was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this support. Structural break testing within this analysis identified three distinct policy periods over the course of this study. The results of the analysis established that research and development (R&D) and the quality of governance have output elasticities that are significantly higher than those associated with direct subsidies, which were found to have declining returns. The findings also suggest that external shocks further decrease the effectiveness of these types of subsidies. The findings of this analysis challenge the prevailing narrative that supports the notion of quantity over composition in support to agriculture as it demonstrates that the composition of supports may be of greater importance to long-term agricultural growth than the quantity. The analysis provides policy recommendations that advocate for the reallocation of resources from universally provided subsidies to merit-based grants for both innovation and institutional reforms that will improve productivity and resilience within the agriculture sector in Russia.

 поддержка сельского хозяйства; анализ временных рядов; структурные разрывы; качество институтов; Россия; постсоветская трансформация; макроэкономическая политика agricultural support; time-series analysis; structural breaks; institutional quality; Russia; post-Soviet transition; macroeconomic policy

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