<!DOCTYPE article
PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.4 20190208//EN"
       "JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.4" xml:lang="en">
 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JOURNAL OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">JOURNAL OF REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Журнал региональной и международной конкурентоспособности</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">2782-1927</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">103208</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.52957/2782-1927-2025-6-2-16-24</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">The prospective estimations of demographic problem addressing in the Russian Federation as a key factor in increasing the country's international competitiveness</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Прогнозные оценки перспектив решения демографической проблемы в Российской Федерации как ключевого фактора повышения международной конкурентоспособности страны</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3098-7710</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Тебекин</surname>
       <given-names>Алексей Васильевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Tebekin</surname>
       <given-names>Alexey Vasilyevich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>tebekin@gmail.com</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор экономических наук;доктор технических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of economic sciences;doctor of technical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Егорова</surname>
       <given-names>А. А.</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Egorova</surname>
       <given-names>Aleksandra Alekseevna</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>ollo59@mail.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Московский государственный университет имени М. В. Ломоносова</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Московский государственный университет имени М. В. Ломоносова</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">ФГБОУ ДПО &quot;ИПК&quot;</institution>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED TRAINING OF EXECUTIVES AND SPECIALISTS</institution>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-3">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">ФГАОУ ВО «Государственный университет просвещения»</institution>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Federal State University of Education</institution>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-4">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">ООО «Научно-технический центр «Интайр»</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Intair LLC</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-06-28T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>28</day>
    <month>06</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-06-28T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>28</day>
    <month>06</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>6</volume>
   <issue>2</issue>
   <fpage>16</fpage>
   <lpage>24</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-02-10T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>10</day>
     <month>02</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2025-05-12T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>12</day>
     <month>05</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://chemintech.ru/en/nauka/article/103208/view">https://chemintech.ru/en/nauka/article/103208/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Актуальность представленного исследования определяется тем, что в современных сложных геополитэкономических условиях развития для Российской Федерации возрастает настоятельность решения демографической проблемы, определяющей как национальную безопасность государства, так и международную конкурентоспособность страны в социально-экономической сфере. Целью представленного исследования является прогнозная оценка перспектив решения демографической проблемы в Российской Федерации как ключевого фактора повышения международной конкурентоспособности страны в ближайшие десятилетия. Научная новизна полученных результатов заключается в получении на основе демографического прогноза Росстата с использованием метода PERT (учитывающего сценарные варианты прогноза – оптимистический, реалистический и пессимистический, оценки перспектив решения демографической проблемы в Российской Федерации в ближайшие 20 лет, которая показала, что в рассматриваемый прогнозный период ожидается общий прирост населения в стране со средним темпом 27014 человек в год, который будет достигаться главным образом (на 96%) за счет естественного прироста населения. Однако этого будет недостаточно для достижения положительной динамики роста численности населения.&#13;
Практическая значимость полученных в рамках данных исследований результатов заключается в возможности их учета при формировании комплекс благоприятных для страны геополитэкономических условий, обеспечивающих решение демографической проблемы как фактора международной конкурентоспособности.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The current complicated geopolitical and economic conditions of the development for the Russian Federation and the demographic problem determine both the national security and the international competitiveness of the country in the socio-economic sphere. It provides the relevance of the research. The purpose of the research is an attempt to forecast the prospects for addressing the demographic problem in the Russian Federation to increase the country's international competitiveness in the future. The demographic forecast of Rosstat using the PERT method considering the optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenario. Therefore, an assessment of the prospects for addressing the demographic problem in the Russian Federation in the next 20 years provides the novelty of the research. Moreover, according to the forecast period under consideration, the total population increase is at an average rate of 27,014 people per year due to the natural population increase (by 96%). However, it can not provide a positive dynamic. The practical significance the research consists in their implementation in the design of the effective geopolitical and economic conditions to address the demographic problem and ensure the international competitiveness of the Russian Federation.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>прогнозные оценки; демографические проблемы; Российская Федерация</kwd>
    <kwd>международная конкурентоспособности страны; демографический прогноз</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>forecast estimates; demographic problem; Russian Federation; country's international competitiveness; demographic forecast</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p></p>
 </body>
 <back>
  <ref-list>
   <ref id="B1">
    <label>1.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Elin, A. M., &amp; Pashin, N. P. (2019). Problems of demography and their solutions in modern Russia. Vestnik nauki i obrazovaniya, 17(71), 19-28 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Elin, A. M., &amp; Pashin, N. P. (2019). Problems of demography and their solutions in modern Russia. Vestnik nauki i obrazovaniya, 17(71), 19-28 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B2">
    <label>2.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Medvedkova, A. I. (2023). Demographic problem in Russia. Nauchnye doklad,  9(33), 87-89. Retrieved from https://nvjournal.ru/article/Demograficheskaja_problema_v_Rossii (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Medvedkova, A. I. (2023). Demographic problem in Russia. Nauchnye doklad,  9(33), 87-89. Retrieved from https://nvjournal.ru/article/Demograficheskaja_problema_v_Rossii (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B3">
    <label>3.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Nochevnova, A. A., &amp; Potapova, E. V. (2024). Analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation. Rossijskij nauchnyj zhurnal &quot;Teleskop&quot;: zhurnal sociologicheskih i marketingovyh issledovanij, 1(13), 135-142 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Nochevnova, A. A., &amp; Potapova, E. V. (2024). Analysis of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation. Rossijskij nauchnyj zhurnal &quot;Teleskop&quot;: zhurnal sociologicheskih i marketingovyh issledovanij, 1(13), 135-142 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B4">
    <label>4.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Rodina T. Y., Zabugina A. A., &amp; Usyakov R. A.(2024). Demographic problem in Russia and ways to solve it, additional measures to support large families.  Ekonomika. Sotsiologiya. Pravo, 1(33), 94-99 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Rodina T. Y., Zabugina A. A., &amp; Usyakov R. A.(2024). Demographic problem in Russia and ways to solve it, additional measures to support large families.  Ekonomika. Sotsiologiya. Pravo, 1(33), 94-99 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B5">
    <label>5.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Saltykova Yu. A., &amp; Kurgan O. V. (2023). Demographic problems of Russia's new reality. Sotsiologiya, (3), 101-109 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Saltykova Yu. A., &amp; Kurgan O. V. (2023). Demographic problems of Russia's new reality. Sotsiologiya, (3), 101-109 (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B6">
    <label>6.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Tebekin, A. V. (2019). The dynamics of the social triad &quot;Demography – Employment – Income&quot; in the modern Russian history. Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy, 4(1), 8-13  (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Tebekin, A. V. (2019). The dynamics of the social triad &quot;Demography – Employment – Income&quot; in the modern Russian history. Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy, 4(1), 8-13  (in Russian).</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
  </ref-list>
 </back>
</article>
